Monday, December 15, 2014

Was Pearl Harbor a Surprise? by Douglas Bohrer

Everybody knows today what was very secret in 1941.  We had broken the Japanese code.  So how could the attack on Pearl Harbor have been a surprise?   I believe it should not have been a total surprise, but it was. We had broken the Japanese diplomatic code, which was based on the Purple Machine variant of the German Enigma machine. That said, we had not developed methods to distribute top secret cryptographic intelligence in a secure way. As a result, Washington gave commanders a general war warning based on the intercepts, but withheld details in order not to reveal that we had broken the Japanese code. We also had not broken the Japanese Naval codes, so we had no detailed knowledge of what was coming and when. When we broke the diplomatic message we intercepted on December 7 announcing the attack, we did not notify combat commanders because there was no safe communication channel to do so. Later in the war, there was a whole specialized structure built to handle the distribution of "Ultra" source intelligence, as intercepted decoded messages were called. Part of the reason the structure was built was the breakdown at Pearl Harbor.


The best book I have found on this subject is "Pearl Harbor Final Judgement" by Henry Clausen and Bruce Lee. Mr. Clausen was appointed by Secretary of War Stimson as the official investigator to find out why we were surprised at Pearl Harbor. Here's a link to a review of the book: 
http://www.amgot.org/phclausn.htm 
The book I read about how "Ultra" intelligence was distributed is "The Ultra Secret" by F W Winterbotham. A review of the book which includes a warning of the book's inaccuracies and exaggerations is here: 
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol19no3/html/v19i3a05p_0001.htm

This is a link to my LinkedIn discussion of this topic.  It has further elaboration.